Time To Call It, Bryan

So who's it going to be? Buster McMarxist or Methuselah Jones?

I am going to continue with my gloomy appraisal of how progressive US voters actually are, and say:

Obama 266
McCain 272

Which gives Obama most of the battleground states (including, very charitably I think, Nevada, Colorado, and Ohio), but leaves Pennsylvania and Florida swinging to McCain and pushing him over the edge.

To quote Sideshow Bob: "Your guilty conscience may move you to vote Democratic, but deep down you long for a cold-hearted Republican to lower taxes, brutalize criminals, and rule you like a king."

Posted by goodladd on November 3, 2008 with category tags of

15 comments
The early prediction thread
I still feel good about my numbers.
   comment by vinny9 (#33) on November 3, 2008

What are you counting on changing (or coming out) in the next 24 hours, Andrew? Do you think the polls are wrong? Do you think McCain has sold voters on the dangers of a Democratic Congress and White House? Are you anticipating a Bradley-effect? Do you think McCain's last minute SNL appearance was that good?

I only ask because your numbers look different from any others that I've seen.

I stand by my old prediction that the Dems had this locked up from the get-go. Throw in a massive financial and economic meltdown, and even John Kerry could have won this election.
   comment by stretch (#87) on November 3, 2008

Obama 378 (NV, CO, MT, MO, IN, OH, FL, VA, NC, NM, IA)
McCain 160
   comment by Bryan (#22) on November 3, 2008

Don't be obnoxious, Ken. Just because my opinion is different from yours, it doesn't mean I'm an idiot.

Mostly I'm just wary of buying into yet another year of "there's no possible way the Democrats can lose this one" because, ha, I've heard that before. Obama's margin isn't that large in any of the contested states, and certainly nothing that a good dose of sampling error and/or Bradley effect couldn't disappear which is even supposing the polls are correct in the first place. If you recall, every major poll going into the New Hampshire primary showed Obama ahead by a double-digit margin, and he still lost to Hillary there.

Polls are indicative but they're not the election, and discounting Clinton (with his broad red state support) there hasn't been a Democrat elected in the US since Carter in 1976. Maybe that means we're in for a change. But I'd say the fact that McCain/Palin can run such a disastrous, surreal, offensive campaign, and STILL be just a few points behind in the polls, suggests that red America is still a force to be reckoned with.

So that's why I'm calling it McCain. Apart from anything else, the worst that can happen if I'm wrong is that Obama is president, and I'm pretty okay with that.
   comment by goodladd (#144) on November 3, 2008

   comment by Bryan (#22) on November 4, 2008

Whoa, it was not my intention to come across as condescending. I apologize.

I've seen stories popping up all over the place in the past week about democrats who sure the Republicans will find a way to snatch away the White House from Obama. I just wanted your take on it.

Speaking of good intentions gone wrong, did anyone see Palin on SNL last night? If you're going to joke about vindictive press censorship, you shouldn't do it in front of an audience that views you as something between an idiot and an autocrat. I wonder if the SNL writers intentionally hung her out to dry, and why her handlers signed off on the bit.
   comment by stretch (#87) on November 4, 2008

Apologies all round, then.
   comment by goodladd (#144) on November 4, 2008

I think we all know that this is going to be a close one regardless of what inaccurate polls tell us nor what the majority liberal biased media says. I, personally, would be more surprised if McCain pulled it off then Obama, but I do hope McCain does it. It'll be decided by whether or not McCain gets one of the large swing states. Ohio or Pennslyvania. NC, VA, MT, MO, IN, IA, are not going to flip over to the democrats. California will be red before some of those states flip over.
   comment by Jon Fred Fox on November 4, 2008

Side bet: Senator Al Franken- yes or no?

   comment by chrisdye on November 4, 2008

Why not? Minnesota is a crazy place. Though I like how they BOTH seem to have slid in the polls since February.
   comment by goodladd (#144) on November 4, 2008

Open question: which pointless, ridiculous, undemocratic institution invented-by-constitution-drafters-while-drunk do you think has the better chance of being abolished in our lifetimes: the US electorial college or the Canadian Senate?
   comment by chrisdye (#15) on November 6, 2008

Electoral College. See my post on the Electoral College Compact. I think that if it passes, the EC will eventually be removed via another amendment.

The Senate gets chatted about because Canadian politicians don't have a lot to talk about.
   comment by vinny9 (#33) on November 6, 2008

Oh, and the EC made some sense at the time when the general populace would have next to no way of being informed on the candidates and so would delegate their franchise to people they could trust, send them to DC and let them decide.
   comment by vinny9 (#33) on November 6, 2008

364-174 (I'm giving Missouri to McCain.)

So no one wins except me who came closest (when factoring in the prediction's awesome early-ness).

I grant myself an electoral vote.
   comment by vinny9 (#33) on November 12, 2008

Wait, you get points for using a random number generator?
   comment by Bryan (#22) on November 13, 2008

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