UK election prediction

We've predicted Canada and the US; why not someplace where only some of us have any idea what goes on?
The British House of Commons has 650 seats (529 in England, 40 in Wales, 59 in Scotland and 18 in Northern Ireland). There are many minor parties that can win a few seats with less than 2% of the vote. The categories for this contest will simply be "Conservatives", "Labour", "Liberal Democrats", and "Other". (If you want to specify the "Other", you are welcome to, but it won't count in who has the best prediction).

Posted by chrisdye on May 5, 2010 with category tags of

Cons: 330
Labour: 175
Lib Dems: 115
Other: 30

You heard it here, folks: Conservatives eke out a suprise majority, Labour has its worst result since before the War, lots of fringe crazies get elected.
   comment by chrisdye (#15) on May 5, 2010

Cons: 218
Labour: 294
Lib Dems: 94
Other: 40

(NB. There are only 646 seats in the UK Parliament.)

I just don't believe Labour will lose *that* many seats, especially not to the hated Tories -- who stand to benefit from Brown-haters far less than the Lib Dems.

But what do I know? I haven't even lived in Britain for nine years.
   comment by goodladd (#144) on May 5, 2010

Boundary changes have increased the number of seats by 4 since the last election.
   comment by chrisdye (#15) on May 5, 2010

Well your own bloody maff says otherwise, mate:

"(529 in England, 40 in Wales, 59 in Scotland and 18 in Northern Ireland)"

Though I concede that you are, in fact, correct. See what I mean about being out of touch?
   comment by goodladd (#144) on May 5, 2010

In the spirit of compromise, I will predict the halfway between your two predictions:

Cons: 274
Labour: 235
Lib Dems: 104
Other: 35
(I rounded Labour up and Lib Dem down...)

Totaling 648, the compromise between your two claims of total seats.
   comment by Gbrowdy (#55) on May 5, 2010

I think Gil might clinch it.
   comment by goodladd (#144) on May 6, 2010

Assuming the last seat being contested today goes to the Tories:

Chris: 166 seats off in total
Me: 170 seats off in total
Gil: 106 seats off in total

Hooray for the spirit of compromise!
   comment by goodladd (#144) on May 7, 2010


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