Prelection My best guess:
CPC: 122 seats
Lib: 105
NDP: 27
BQ: 53
Ind: 1
Quebec:
BQ: 53
Lib: 13
CPC: 8
Ind: 1
My understanding is that in a minority government situation, the incumbent prime minister gets the first crack at forming a government. So if NDP + Lib > CPC, then the Libs and NDP could enter into a formal alliance in order to keep the Tories from power. I suspect they wouldn't do it unless the Libs were within a few seats of the Tories, since it would be seen as thwarting the will of the people.
13 comments | It is the party with the most seats that forms the government. They have no obligation to form any kind of standing coalition. The minority government would then last until it was defeated on a non-confidence motion (ie. any bill which concerns money). There is no way in the Canadian system for the party with the most seats to not from the government. | | |
| That was ken, posting as Adrienne in case you hadn't guessed. | | |
Actually, Bryan is right. The existing PM does have the first crack at forming a minority coalition (see the 1925 federal election).
(In fact, a screwy quirk of Canadian constitutional convention is that, since the Governor General is required to follow the advice of the Prime Minister, Paul Martin could call another election tomorrow if he didn't like the result.)
However, Paul Martin said that he would not try to form a coalition if he didn't get the most seats in in 2004.
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| This is madness, madness i tell you. | | |
Is that Adrienne posting as Ken?
Predictions:
Cons: 140 Lib: 85 NDP: 24 Bloc: 58 André Arthur: 1
Quebec: Bloc 58 Lib:12 Cons: 4 André Arthur: 1
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Predictions:
Cons: 125 Lib: 98 NDP: 27 Bloc: 57 André Arthur: 1
Quebec: Bloc 57 Lib:14 Cons: 3 André Arthur: 1
My House: Ben 3 Habs 0 | | |
I remember when Martin said that in '04. I don't think he said it this time... but again, it'd have to be tied or one or two short for him to have the gall, I think.
My indy prediction is also M. Arthur. He seems to have his riding sewn up. | | |
| Also, I predict Stronach will get booted out on her stomach. | | |
For my predictions, I go straight to the source: The Ghost of Mackenzie King's Dog. I think TGOMKD has the authority to overturn the will of the people.
There were a couple of names on my ballot that I didn't recognize even though I went out of my way to find out as much as I could about each of the candidates. WBP was one of the parties that I didn't know. They are western seperatists lead by a lawyer who's hobby is defending Holocaust deniers (Like fan favourite Ernst Zundel) and white power advocates. Fun stuff.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Christie_%28lawyer%29 | | |
| Whoa, Bryan! You are ON FIRE! | | |
| Ken, out of curioisity, were you rooting for a Conservative majority? | | |
| No. I voted liberal (which, in Alberta, is like trying to bail a sinking ship with a thimble). I think a Conservative minority will be alright as long as the other parties don't let them do too many strange things. I am now waiting to see how long it takes for some Conservative backbencher to introduce a private member's bill to ban women from wearing shoes or something equally socially progressive. | | |
| Huh. Fascinating. I'd say that my respect for you rises but I've always respected you, and I don't disrespect everyone who votes Tory, so I guess really what I mean is: my respect for the thoughtfulness of your political beliefs remains steady and much. | | |
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